As Ankara and Damascus inch closer, northeastern Syria stands to lose

QAMISHLI — Following a series of Turkish statements aimed at restoring ties with the Syrian regime, Damascus conditioned any rapprochement on “the withdrawal of illegally present forces” and “fighting terrorist groups that threaten both Syria and Turkey’s stability” in a statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates over the weekend. 

Ankara subsequently renewed talk of normalization, with Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan noting in a July 14 press conference that the situation in Syria is “extremely complicated” and it is necessary to “start talking about it and discussing the issues.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s overtures to his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, are “highly valuable, and I hope that they are aware of its value,” he added. 

The prospect of normalizing relations between Ankara and Damascus after 13 years of rupture weighs heavily on the minds of all parties in Syria, including the Ankara-backed opposition. Fidan sought to reassure it that Turkey’s position towards it would not change after it stood by it “against the terrorist organizations for years,” as he put it, in reference to Kurdish forces in Syria.

A new turning point in Syrian-Turkish relations would likely pose the greatest danger to the future of northeastern Syria, however. Concern is palpable in recent statements by the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), the civilian wing of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Ankara views as a terrorist organization. 

At the end of June, the AANES called any reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus “a great conspiracy against the Syrian people, and a clear legitimization of the Turkish occupation” of areas held by Turkish-backed opposition forces in northern Syria. “Any agreement with the Turkish state goes against the public interest of Syrians and consecrates partition,” it added.

While Damascus’ recent remarks rejected Ankara’s calls in principle, an announcement by Iraq’s foreign minister this past Friday that Baghdad would soon host a meeting between Syrian and Turkish officials indicates that the two countries may be well on their way to restoring relations. 

Prior to that, pro-regime newspaper al-Watan reported on June 30, citing unnamed “knowledgeable sources,” that the meeting would be “the beginning of a long negotiation process that could lead to political and on-the-ground understandings.”

Any understandings reached would be “directed against the AANES, and an attempt to eliminate it,” Ali Rahmoun, co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC)—the political wing of the SDF—said. Ankara and Damascus “do not accept any democratic condition in Syria,” he added. 

The AANES has had no new communications with Damascus to mitigate the repercussions of possible rapprochement with Ankara for its region, Rahmoun said. “There were meetings in 2019, aimed at reaching understandings” with the central government, “but they stopped in 2020,” he added.

Those meetings focused on “security and service issues, since the area is tied to Damascus in many issues, and coordination at the security and administrative levels is necessary,” Rahmoun said. 

As Damascus-based Syrian writer and political analyst Ghassan Yousef sees it, Ankara seeks to hold negotiations at this time due to “domestic pressures it faces, from its internal opposition or [within] the ruling coalition.” It also reflects a desire to “form good relations with Russia, countering America, which supports the SDF,” he told Syria Direct. 

Yousef expects progress towards meetings between representatives of the two countries in Baghdad, following recent Iraqi government statements. “Secret meetings between the two countries have not been interrupted in the first place, whether in Baghdad, the Hmeimim base or Moscow,” he added. These meetings led to “Aleppo being handed over to the Syrian state [in 2016], and Turkey adhered to this Russia-sponsored agreement.”

Normalization risks

Ankara’s moves towards normalization with Damascus come as the AANES prepares to hold municipal elections in its areas of influence next month. Turkey vehemently opposes the vote, which was originally scheduled for June and postponed to August.

There is “a shared apprehension” towards the AANES holding local elections that could then develop into parliamentary elections or secession, Yousef said, and any understandings between Ankara and Damascus “will include the AANES areas.” Bilateral talks are “serious,” he added, and form the basis for “understandings and security and economic agreements” contributing to “the return of relations in an acceptable manner.”

Read more: The war over AANES elections in northeastern Syria

“Turkey will not stop its military operations against northeastern Syria,” sending a message to the United States  that it “will not hear of the establishment of a Kurdish entity on the border,” Yousef added. “The SDF will have no choice but dialogue with the Syrian state, not raising the ceiling of its demands.” As a result, “you get a decentralized local administration without a military force,” he said. 

Commenting on that, al-Absi Taha, also known as Abu Omar al-Idlibi, the commander of the Northern Democratic Brigade of the SDF, said the latter is “in a state of constant readiness and preparedness, ready to deter and respond decisively to any aggression to defend the people of our region.” Any “new scenarios will be dealt with,” he told Syria Direct. 

While recent Syrian-Turkish statements “appeared positive” they “do not reflect the real stances and policies of each over the years of the crisis,” Taha said. 

Still, strong words from the SDF and official institutions in northeastern Syria do not ease the fears of civilians living in the region. Ankara launched two military operations against SDF-held parts of northeastern Syria in recent years. In its 2017 Operation Olive Branch, Turkish-backed forces captured the Afrin region of Aleppo. In 2019, Operation Peace Spring ended with the capture of Ras al-Ain (Serekaniye) in Hasakah province and Tal Abyad in Raqqa province. 

As talk of Syrian-Turkish rapprochement heats up, fear and apprehension hangs over residents of remaining SDF-held territory, particularly as Ankara continues to bombard targets in Syria’s northeast. On Sunday, one person was killed and another injured in the countryside of the Hasakah town of Ain Issa by Turkish bombardment that targeted the Aleppo-Latakia stretch of the M4 international highway. 

Since Sunday night, villages near the Aleppo city of Manbij have also been under bombardment from positions held by Turkish forces and Ankara-backed opposition factions, as the Manbij Military Council posted on its official Facebook page. 

Northern Democratic Brigade commander Taha called on the international community to “preserve the security and stability of the region, and stand firmly against all those who try to destabilize it, which would spread chaos and terrorism on a wide scale.” 

He emphasized that Russian participation in bringing about rapprochement “would negatively impact the Syrian crisis,” as Moscow’s view “is far from the implementation of [UN] Security Council Resolution 2254 for a political solution in Syria.” 

Syria Direct reached out to the co-presidency of the AANES’ Executive Council to inquire about possible scenarios in response to warming ties between Damascus and Ankara, but received no response by the time of publication. 

A ‘fundamental change’

Damascus and Ankara’s views differ from what they once were. Both desire “a kind of transformation in the deadlocked relations between them,” Muhannad Oğlu, a political researcher and specialist in Turkish affairs, said. On that basis, Russia has sponsored bilateral meetings between itself and Ankara on one hand, and itself and Damascus on the other. “Today, things are heading towards a new start of relations to some extent, more important than before,” he said. 

Rapprochement would push Damascus into “silence” about any Turkish military action in northeastern Syria, especially against Kobani (Ain al-Arab), Manbij and Tal Rifaat, Oğlu said. “The reality on the ground will fundamentally change. Military operations are coming, and with force.”

The future of northeastern Syria cannot be predicted, because “the region faces many scenarios,” he added. What is certain, however, is that “Turkey does not want the AANES to go ahead with municipal elections, and Damascus realizes that Ankara is justified in that.” 

Oğlu attributed Turkey’s fears around the elections to their potential to lead to the formation of the nucleus of a state on its border, an experiment that could then move to southern parts of Turkey, such as Diyarbakır. “Ankara will not allow that to happen in Syria, and will strike the SDF, the direct arm of the PKK,” as he put it. 

However, military threats to the region “never stopped” even before talk of municipal elections, Taha said. “Ankara continues its aggression through drones and aerial and artillery bombardment,” killing and injuring civilians and damaging vital economic facilities, alongside energy and water sources, he added. 

At the start of July, al-Watan newspaper reported that the AANES had closed its crossings with Syrian regime territory in response to the possibility of Syrian-Turkish rapprochement. In response, Taha said “talk about closing the crossings was overblown in the media,” noting that “crossings are closed when the need arises, and this was not the first time. It is subject to several organizational, economic and security considerations, and comes for a specific period before things return to normal.” 

Shera Oso, a member of the Presidential Board of the SDC, also denied reports circulating about the imminent reopening of the Nusaybin border crossing between Turkey and Qamishli. “The Damascus authority’s forces only control the crossing in Qamishli city, and their presence is limited to the security square,” she said. What matters to Damascus and Ankara is “opening the Gaziantep-Aleppo road to transport Turkish goods to Jordan, and from it to the Arab Gulf, since Turkey is suffering from a suffocating economic crisis.” 

Whatever the future holds for normalization, the SDC’s Rahmoun stressed that the administration’s strategy aims at “a Syrian-Syrian dialogue,” emphasizing that “the solution must be political, not military.” 

This report was produced as part of Syria Direct’s Sawtna Training Program for women journalists across areas of control in Syria. It was originally published in Arabic and translated into English by Mateo Nelson.