Opposition fighters break into Aleppo city: Why now?

PARIS — Syrian opposition factions and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) entered Aleppo city on Friday, pressing forward on the third day of a shock offensive against regime forces and their allies that has seen rebel forces seize control of vast areas of western Aleppo and eastern Idlib.

The military operation, dubbed “Deterring Aggression,” began on November 27. Its objective is to expand “the secure areas and ensure the return of displaced people with dignity and safety,” Lieutenant Colonel Hassan Abdul Ghani, commander of the opposition Military Operations Department overseeing the battles, told Syria Direct. 

Over the past three days, opposition fighters rapidly advanced while regime forces unexpectedly retreated, pulling out of strategic positions including large sections of the Damascus-Aleppo international highway, known as the M5. To control the strategic highway, Damascus had repeatedly violated a Russian-Turkish ceasefire agreement in recent years. 

Notably, opposition forces’ advance did not stop at the borders of areas they previously held and lost—during the battle for Aleppo in 2016, or to Russian-backed operations in 2019 and 2020. By Friday, the attacking forces took control of areas they never controlled, including western neighborhoods of Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo. 

In response, Syrian regime and Russian warplanes set their sights on Idlib province, where at least 23 airstrikes hit the provincial capital and several cities and towns in the surrounding countryside on Friday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported. 

So far, at least 255 people have been killed during the operation, including 144 HTS and opposition fighters, 87 Syrian troops and allied militiamen and 24 civilians, according to SOHR. As of Thursday, some 14,000 people had been displaced, according to the United Nations’ Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). 

The rapid collapse of regime forces raises questions about where Moscow and Ankara stand, not only as the main backers of the opposing forces, but as parties to a 2020 ceasefire agreement covering the area of this week’s battles.

Why now?

Operation Deterring Aggression decisively broke four years of troubled calm in the Idlib area, the last of four “de-escalation zones” established in Syria as part of the Astana talks led by Russia, Turkey and Iran. For years, the pace of military operations was low, limited to intermittent shelling and limited clashes on the lines of contact. 

This week’s operation offensive was launched to “remove the threat of [Iranian] militias and their fire from populated villages and towns,” Abdul Ghani of the Military Operations Department said. He pointed to a “recent escalation in bombardment, leading to the death of dozens of martyrs, injuries and the displacement of more than 1,600 families.” 

Accordingly, the operation aimed to “create a safe environment for our displaced people to return, and to reclaim areas occupied by the regime and Iranian militias,” Abdul Ghani said on Thursday. 

The commander did not comment on indications that the operation was greenlit by Turkey. “It came after preparations were completed and plans were clearly drawn,” he said, emphasizing that “various military factions participated, with support and backing from the community.” 

Firas Fahham, a Turkey-based researcher at the Dimensions for Strategic Studies (DSS) institute, sees other reasons for opposition forces to strike now. “The battle is an attempt by the opposition to exploit the current international circumstances, as Russia is more preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, especially after confrontations moved into its interior,” he said. Iran, Damascus’ other main backer, “is under pressure, and [faces] a decline in its influence” in the region. 

The timing of the battle is “most appropriate for retaking areas originally within the deescalation zones, which the regime captured in 2019,” Fahham said. It also comes as Turkey is “dissatisfied with the behavior of the regime and Iranian militias, their continued bombardment and violation of the de-escalation agreement,” he added. 

Regional developments may also play a role, particularly war in Gaza and South Lebanon and “escalation between Russia and the West on the Iranian file,” defected Brigadier General Mustafa al-Farhat, a political and strategic analyst, said. “The Syrian file affects and is affected by any international escalation,” he told Syria Direct. 

In al-Farhat’s view, “the military action should have started earlier, when there was greater pressure on the regime and Iranian militias—at least two months ago, as the opportunity was more ripe for investment.” 

What comes next? 

In what appears to be the first official Turkish comment on the opposition offensive, Turkish foreign ministry spokesperson Öncü Keçeli posted on X (formerly Twitter) on Friday: “Maintaining calm in Idlib and the adjacent region, which is at the zero point of our border, is a priority for Türkiye.”

“We have warned on various international platforms that the recent attacks on Idlib have reached a level that undermines the spirit and implementation of the Astana agreements,” Keçeli added. “In fact, the recent clashes have resulted in an undesirable escalation of tensions in the region.” 

Ankara’s response so far has been “diplomatic and political,” but its involvement is likely deeper, al-Farhat said. “It is present on the ground and supports revolutionary factions, justifying the operation within the bounds of the agreements violated by the regime,” he added.

Al-Farhat reads “a change in international positions and the lines of engagement at the international level.” Since “matters [in Syria] are intractable, the northern canton [opposition-held northwestern Syria] had to expand to find a place for the population density,” he added.

The population of northwestern Syria is around 6.5 million people, according to the latest figures from the Syrian Response Coordination Group. Around 4.5 million live in Idlib and parts of Aleppo province ruled by the HTS-backed Salvation Government. The rest live in parts of the northern Aleppo countryside controlled by Ankara-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) factions. 

“No large-scale military action can take place without the major international parties looking the other way,” al-Farhat said. “Factions participating are loyal to Turkey and in line with the Western camp.” 

Damascus commented on the opposition offensive for the first time on Thursday, calling it “a flagrant violation of the deescalation agreement” in a statement by the General Command of the Army and Armed Forces. The operation came “at the behest of regional and international operators,” it said, acknowledging its forces faced a “large” attack on a “wide front.” 

Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the attack was a “violation of Syria’s sovereignty in this region” on Friday, urging “Syrian authorities to reassert control and restore constitutional order as soon as possible.” 

Similarly, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei condemned the escalation on Thursday as a “flagrant violation of the Astana agreements, putting the positive achievements of this process in serious jeopardy.” He accused the United States and Israel of orchestrating the operation to “destabilize the region’s security.” 

Moscow and Tehran played key roles in the regime taking control of Aleppo’s eastern neighborhoods from opposition forces in 2016, as well as many opposition areas of central and southern Syria in 2018. 

The regime’s rapid retreat in Aleppo not only underscores its vulnerability without the support of its allies, but calls into question whether an understanding between regime and opposition backers could change a map of control that has been frozen for years. 

“The situation is foggy,” researcher Fahham said. “Russia’s position is unclear,” leaving the outcome of the battle and developments on the ground impossible to predict.

This report was originally published in Arabic and translated into English by Mateo Nelson.