While the immediate threat of open war between Iran and Israel has receded in the wake of this month’s unprecedented escalation, the risk of renewed conflict lingers. Syria—fertile ground for another spark—remains a place to watch.
The killing of a member of a right-wing Christian political party in Lebanon last week, attributed by the army to Syrian carjackers, unleashed a torrent of violence and threats against refugees, leaving many afraid to leave their homes.
Motorcycles and scooters are a lifeline for many Syrians in Lebanon, but most cannot legally register them. As police crack down, they face fines, extortion and—as seen in the recent killing of a young man at a checkpoint in Beirut—violence.
Syrian refugees fleeing fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon grapple with new challenges and a lack of support, while displacement and bombardment stirs painful memories of war in Syria.
Intolerable conditions in Lebanon are pushing increasing numbers of Syrians to take to the sea. With all eyes on escalating violence in southern Lebanon, the number of Syrians leaving from the north over the past two months reached more than four times the number for the same period in 2022.
After years of violations, HTS aims to adopt a new policy of openness towards Idlib’s minorities, returning some seized properties and encouraging Christians and Druze to return. Still, discrimination persists and the hardline group has not compensated property owners for years of losses.
Syria’s fronts with Israel remain relatively quiet, while intensified Israeli strikes and mobilization by Iran-linked forces in the country leave the door open to increased escalation.
Syrian children are among the hardest hit as Lebanon’s public education system falters under the weight of economic crisis and dwindling funding.
Amid fears of war between Israel and Hamas spiraling into a regional conflagration, analysts weigh the impact of regional players and assess the likelihood of another front in Syria.
A wave of swift door-to-border deportations is terrorizing Syrians in Lebanon, with more than 1,100 refugees arrested and 600 deported in April.
